Wait, what do you mean the “office siren” trend is a recession indicator?
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The notion of fashion as an extension of the self is an idea that has existed for as long as fashion itself has. A sentiment echoed throughout generations; it is a medium for self-expression, a means of escape, and even a piece of physical armor to brave against the world-at-large.
In fact, in some ways, social media has elevated fashion to become a widely accessible art form. One that still remains an intimate mirror of the artist, but is also now readily consumed and internalized to become our own. The proof is in the pudding! Check out all of the Pinterest boards created across the internet (guilty) or all of the saves on TikTok videos labelled “Outfit Inspiration” or “Fit Check” (also guilty). Society has since evolved this idea of fashion as a personal journey and cultivated it to become a community.
But in recontextualizing fashion as an artform, one can no longer escape the society it exists in. No matter how vital exclusive luxury houses are in setting today’s fashion landscape, they are not resistant to the impermanence of the world. After all, in an industry whose foundation includes cyclical trends and planned obsolescence, the only thing permanent is change.
So this then begs the question, “How is fashion responding to society today?” To that, the answer might just be in between the seams of longer hemlines, the return of the office siren, and the rise of workwear chic. Folks, it’s time to tighten those belts and stop burning holes in your pockets; the clothes are telling us we’re in an economic recession.
A QUICK REFRESH ON RECESSIONS
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Before going into how fashion fits into the narrative of a recession, it’s important to have a refresher on what a recession is in the first place. According to the International Monetary Fund, a recession is a long-term period of decline in widespread economic activity, often spanning at least two quarters or half a year. So no, society lessening their spending because it’s petsa de peligro is not grounds for a recession; instead, factors like a decline in nominal Gross Domestic Product (the monetary value of all the products and services rendered by a country in a given period, adjusted for inflation) and increased unemployment are.
Commonly, there are five key signs one should look out for when a recession begins to loom. The first two are the aforementioned decline in nominal GDP and increased unemployment rate. In addition to these are a decrease in real income or one’s purchasing power given their income (think how much P1000 used to get you at the groceries versus what it gets you today), stagnation of industrial production and retail sales, and an overall decline in consumer spending.
The two most recent recessions readers may have observed in their lifetime were that of the COVID-19 recession and the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. Yet it seems like another one could be coming a little sooner than we had thought. Don’t shoot the messenger, but even without the bookish knowledge of nominal GDP and real income, the streets are saying the economy’s next omen lies in your own closet.
FASHION AS A HARBINGER OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
Christian Dior 1947
It’s very easy to be skeptical of how exactly hemlines correlate with economic activity, and yet the Hemline Index Theory has existed since the 1920s. It started with economist George Taylor witnessing a boom in the hosiery industry after the first World War. In 1929, his PhD thesis titled “Significant Post-War Changes in the Full-Fashioned Hosiery Industry,” connected this increase in hosiery sales to purchases brought on by shorter hemlines.
From there, the cycle seemed to continue: Christian Dior released the New Look in 1947 with long voluminous skirts that seemed to prelude the 1949 recession, and Mini Skirts prowled the streets in the 80s at the time of Reagan’s millionaire boom, only to be ushered out by the Midi Skirts and the Wall Street Crash of 1987.
Although this theory may hinge on cyclical coincidences, one thing is for certain: fashion, once viewed as art, becomes an intimate lens of the world around us. The decision to don something like a work jacket is now less of a personal choice, but one that is ultimately influenced by society—in this case, the economy.
CURRENT FASHION TRENDS AS RECESSION INDICATORS
The way that fashion works is that luxury houses set the trends during their runway shows. It’s all about trend forecasting and research during collection ideation, and that’s where societal influence first makes its mark on fashion. It begins at the most exclusive market, and eventually trickles down to the masses some quarters later. So yes, fashion houses could serve as recession predictors, (e.g. it could be a hit-or-miss, or some trends might just be a pendulum swinging) but the minute it hits the mass market, we might just be in the thick of it.
So what’s on our radar based on the recently concluded FW2025?
The Era of The Suit
Givenchy by Sarah Burton (From Kuba Dabrowski)
Alexander McQueen FW25 (From Alexander McQueen)
Ferragamo FW25 (from Alessandro Lucioni)
Stella McCartney FW25 (IG_ @stellamccartney)
The idea of the modern woman, power dressing and exuding confident femininity, has been a recent takeaway from the rising trend of tailored suits. As art is often heterogeneous in its principles, many have pushed forward the narrative of confident femininity. Although this may be true, this acceptance of tailoring to become part of the everyday, be it from “laptop to lap dance” as Stella McCartney would put it, reveals a collective anxiety of preparing to spend less on clothing.
The office siren and the introduction of multi-purpose garments by profit-driven businesses raises an eyebrow: Haven’t we just finished with the 2010s trend of wearing blazers to the club? As mentioned earlier, less consumer spending is a key sign of the recession. So once brands are veering away from a human’s multifacetedness to be dressed appropriately at different functions, or for their varied personalities, something has to be coming.
Sidenote: This same line of thinking also exists in the already prevalent rise of workwear chic from brands like Dickies or Carhartt: both genres pedestal uniforms in their own right, one’s just in an office.
Lingerie On The Go
Chloé FW25 (IG_ @Chloé)
Givenchy by Sarah Burton (From Kuba Dabrowski)
Miu Miu FW25 (From Giovanni Giannoni)
Similar to suits, having a garment often associated with sleepwear and undergarments as a new casual outfit seems to follow the key sign of consuming less. After all, one purchase guarantees a hundred more uses and environments for this lace set to see aside from the usual bedroom.
At Gucci, we see these lace tops paired with Midi Skirts, another nod to longer hemlines and its accordance with the Hemline Index Theory. And at Miu Miu and Givenchy, reimagined corsets from underneath to over-top are a sight to behold.
Faux Fur
Rabanne FW25 (From Rabanne)
Khaite FW25 (From Khaite)
Valentino FW25 (from Adam Katz Sinding)
Altuzarra FW25 (From Altuzarra)
When luxury fashion houses—commonly exclusive and expensive—begin forging a story that involves faux fur, it might just be less about sustainability and veganism and more about an economic recession. It repositions fur as a luxury; one that is inaccessible even to the rich. Despite the rise of the Mob Wife trend late last year, having brands advertise faux fur could just be an indication of stagnating materials and production.
What faux fur represents then is the attainment of faux luxury, as if it’s a form of escapism to older generations that were economically prosperous enough to have these garments in the first place. Not only do luxury houses dictate what mass markets are about to get, but they also continue to propagate what exactly the wealthy have that the rest of society don’t, from employment with work jackets and tailored suits to the warmth and comfort with fur.
HOW DO WE GO FROM HERE?
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Whether you like it or not, not participating in the latest fashion trends does not exempt you from the economic impositions. We may not be able to stop it, but there is power in knowing how it may affect our lives so we can recognize its large-scale repercussions.
This is also not a go-ahead to mindlessly purchase these fashion trends! Sure, it may not truly affect the possibility of an economic recession, but I am still an advocate of conscious spending. Have your own agency in creating your own sartorial works of art. Legitimizing fashion as a recession indicator opens up the possibilities for fashion to be a universal lens to view the world, a universal language to be listened to. So if clothes are indeed trying to tell us something, the question now is—what more would you like it to say?
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